Episode #480: Craig Wichner, Farmland LP - Cultivating Wealth with Sustainable Farmland Investing - Meb Faber Analysis

Episode #480: Craig Wichner, Farmland LP – Cultivating Wealth with Sustainable Farmland Investing

 

Visitor: Craig Wichner is the Founder and Managing Associate of Farmland LP, a number one funding fund that generates returns by changing standard industrial farmland to regenerative sustainable farmland.

Date Recorded: 4/19/2023     |     Run-Time: 1:00:38

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Abstract: In in the present day’s episode, Craig begins with an replace on his firm after which shares how increased inflation and the shifting macro atmosphere has affected farmland as an asset class, particularly after 2022 when actual property have been one of many few property that didn’t have unfavorable returns.

Then we dive into the financials of an acquisition they fabricated from a 4,000 acre, 150 yr outdated farm in Northern California again in 2013 for just below $30 million. Craig walks via the funding and timeline to transform the farm to natural, the good thing about the conversion, and the way it helped the farm be re-appraised for simply over $75 million final yr.

Craig shares some nice slides in the course of the episode, so if you wish to watch on YouTube, click on beneath.

Take heed to Craig’s first look in December 2020 right here.

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Sponsor: YCharts permits monetary advisors to make smarter funding selections and higher talk with purchasers. YCharts affords a collection of intuitive instruments, together with quite a few visualizations, complete safety screeners, portfolio development, communication outputs, and market monitoring. To start out your free trial and make sure you point out “MEB ” for 20% off your subscription, click on right here. (New purchasers solely)

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Hyperlinks from the Episode:

• 0:39 – Sponsor: YCharts
• 1:48 – Intro
• 2:56 – Welcome Craig to the present
• 4:00 – Episode #276: Craig Wichner, Farmland LP
• 4:09 – The expansion of Farmland LP since 2020
• 7:00 – Leverage ratios between multi-family actual property, workplace buildings, and farmland
• 8:00 – The farmland sector’s optimistic correlation with inflation
• 14:10 – Why there’s a scarcity of natural farms
• 23:25 – Strolling via an actual case research
• 26:52 – How Farmland LP calculates how a lot debt to make use of on a farm
• 28:10 – The valuation of dry land and water
• 36:00 – The supply of Farmland LP’s funding capital
• 37:00 – The mechanics of the upcoming launch of Fund III
• 44:30 – The position that automation performs in farming
• 48:40 – How Farmland LP obtained the best ever ESG rating from the biggest agency
• 53:12 – Authorities-subsidized natural crop insurance coverage
• 55:15 – What the longer term appears like for Farmland LP
• 56:40 – Farmland LP’s upcoming investor occasions; be taught extra at farmlandlp.com; e-mail [email protected]

 

Transcript:

Welcome Message:

Welcome to the Med Faber Present, the place the main focus is on serving to you develop and protect your wealth. Be part of us as we focus on the craft of investing and uncover new and worthwhile concepts, all that can assist you develop wealthier and wiser. Higher investing begins right here.

Disclaimer:

Med Faber’s the co-founder and chief funding officer at Cambria Funding Administration. On account of trade laws he won’t focus on any of Camber’s funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast members are solely their very own opinions and don’t replicate the opinion of Cambria Funding Administration or its associates. For extra info, go to cambriainvestments.com.

Meb:

Immediately’s episode is sponsored by my mates at YCharts. In the event you’re a monetary advisor, pay attention up. By now you recognize YCharts enables you to see return information, value charts and different info, however now they’re taking it to a complete nother stage by serving to you create customized stories and shows to reinforce conversations with purchasers and prospects. With its straightforward drag and drop design, the report builder means that you can customise over 30 visuals, making it nice for assembly with prospects and purchasers throughout quarter or year-end opinions. You possibly can even add your personal visuals and your agency branding colours and brand. Their new replace permits for personalised storytelling, supplying you with the flexibility to tug in save tables and charts, or add customized textual content bins that advisors love so as to add disclosures for our mates in compliance. Make your life simpler. Give YCharts a attempt to streamline your course of of constructing shows. YCharts is providing new subscribers who’re listeners of the present a 20% low cost. Click on on the hyperlink within the present notes or go to go.ycharts.com/meb2023. That’s go.ycharts.com/meb2023, or simply click on on the hyperlink within the present notes.

 

Meb:

Hi there everyone. We’re heading again right down to the farm in the present day with returning visitors. Craig Wichner, founder and managing companion of Farmland LP, the biggest farmland supervisor targeted on natural farmland now managing over 1 / 4 billion {dollars} in property and 15,000 acres of farmland. Immediately’s episode Craig begins with an replace on his firm, after which shares how increased inflation and the shifting macro atmosphere has affected farmland as an asset class, particularly after 2022 when actual property have been one of many few ones that didn’t have unfavorable returns. Then we dive right into a case research of an acquisition they fabricated from a 4,000 acre, 150-year-old farm in Northern California again in 2013 for just below $30 million. Craig walks via the funding and timeline to transform the farm to natural, the advantages of the conversion and the way it helped the farm be reappraised for simply over $75 million final yr.

Craig shares some nice slides in the course of the episode, so if you wish to watch it on YouTube, click on on the hyperlink within the present notes. And for those who aren’t subscribed to our YouTube channel, what are you ready for? Virtually 15,000 traders are subscribed, so hop on over. Please get pleasure from this episode with farmland LPs. Craig Wichner. Craig, welcome again to the present.

Craig:

Meb, nice to see you.

Meb:

You have been final right here in late 2020. I’m excited to get a catch-up. What’s occurring in your life, your world? The place do we discover you in the present day? This stunning, for these not watching on YouTube, this stunning [inaudible 00:03:13] within the background. The place are you?

Craig:

Simply north of San Francisco close to Larkspur.

Meb:

Let’s get slightly replace briefly in your firm and agency, then we’ll discuss all issues farmland, macro after which again particularly to y’all’s farms. However give us the replace since 2020. Did I see you guys are actually on the fund three?

Craig:

We’re nearly to launch fund three. We truly simply yesterday closed a 1100 acre property. That’ll be the primary property in fund three.

Meb:

Congrats. The place was the closing?

Craig:

Oregon within the Willamette Valley. Good natural blueberries, wine grapes, hazelnuts, stunning floor, stunning groundwater rights or water rights normally. Nice rising local weather.

Meb:

Yum. All proper, properly catch us up on the corporate. We’ll put up the present notice hyperlink listeners if you need the form of intro episode. However stroll us ahead since 2020, what have you ever guys been as much as?

Craig:

Nice. Nicely, we’re as much as round $250 million in property, about 15,000 acres, 16,000 acres of farmland. Now, for the individuals who don’t know, we purchase standard farmland, Farmland LP buys standard farmland and converts it to natural regeneratively managed farmland as an funding fund. And we actually simply concentrate on including worth to farmland. Enterprise has grown a bit as properly. We’ve got about eight individuals in fund administration and 45 individuals in farmland administration, and we lease out two thirds of our acres and we farm a few third of the acres ourselves and our farmland is positioned in Northern California, Oregon and Washington.

Meb:

Nicely, one of many huge issues that has definitely modified or accelerated, we might do lots of completely different adjectives, since we final spoke is a, I imply multi-decade outlined regime that appears to have shifted, which is of one among declining rates of interest and bottoming to at least one the place impulsively rates of interest have shot up and inflation. Which is one thing that we haven’t seen in the USA or has been a priority for 40 years, actually. Inform me slightly bit about that. We discuss farmland market normally. You may give us an replace overview of the macro and the way it’s impacted curiosity and every part you guys are doing in your world.

Craig:

It looks like this extremely therefore time. One of many issues that I really like about farmland is that there’s $3.8 trillion price of farmland within the U.S. Similar financial worth as the entire workplace buildings within the U.S. or the entire residence buildings within the U.S. However once more, 40% of farmland is leased. Farmland actually is industrial actual property like these different asset courses. However there’s little or no debt on the farmland sector. And possibly I’ll simply put up a fast slide for you guys for-

Meb:

Yeah, I’d like to see, you could have a fantastic deck. If we are able to’t share broadly with the listeners, possibly you’ll allow us to share a few of the slides in these present notes. However there was actually two huge takeaways from our final episode that basically have been a shock to me, for somebody even who’s been a very long time Farmland participant investor. The primary was the statistic you simply dropped, which is absolutely the magnitude of the scale of Farmland. And you may see on the slide relative to, wow, this can be a nice slide. Relative to varied kinds of industrial actual property workplace and we truly simply did an episode on timber, so the timber trade too. All proper, we’ll hand it again to you.

Craig:

Nicely, that’s nice. The subsequent half about it’s the leverage ratios. So multi-family is round 51%. LTV workplace buildings are round 78% LTV in the whole sector, $3.2 trillion price of workplace buildings, 78% of that’s debt. And that’s why you see actually super modifications occur when you could have rates of interest go up or have any credit score points. Farmland, there’s solely 13% LTV on the whole sector, so actually tremendously little debt and about half of that debt is simply working strains. It’s not even the land being leveraged, however I embody that within the quantity simply as a worst case comparability. And solely 2% of farmland is institutionally owned. It actually is that this, it’s not correlated with the debt markets. It’s been onerous historically to get into as an institutional investor and even as a person investor.

I do know you’re personally an proprietor in Farmland, which is nice, and it does truly positively correlate with inflation. Truly, I’ll go to the following slide right here only for background. And the quick story on that is that over the a long time since 1970 farmland returns have crushed inflation by 6.2% per yr. And the mechanism of that’s truly simply, it’s actually easy and simple when you perceive it, which is that rents on farmland, 40% of farmland is rented, as I mentioned. And the lease charges are principally pushed by the worth of the crops that develop on that land. And in order you enhance the worth of the crops, it will increase returns to the farmers and the landowners. And that ends in enhance in asset worth as properly over time. And so very merely, as meals costs will increase, which is the definition of core inflation, meals costs go up, the farmers’ income per acre goes up, they’re rising the identical quantity of meals and slightly bit extra every year with productiveness will increase and that will increase the returns per acre on the farmland and will increase the asset worth as properly.

That basically has pushed these nice returns plus productiveness will increase over time. And that’s actually the core of our technique, which is to extend the worth of the crops grown on that land, not depending on inflation, however truly we’ve demonstrated that we purchase farmland that generates rents of $300 an acre, take it via a three-year natural conversion course of and get rents of $750 an acre on that land.

Meb:

The analogy to industrial actual property is so relatable I really feel like for many individuals as a result of most individuals have grown up clearly with actual property, even when it’s only a private expertise, but it surely’s slightly extra tangible I really feel like for many. For these of us who’ve grown up both on a farm or subsequent to a farm, it’s a really related psychological idea, the industrial actual property rents versus farmland. What’s the easy takeaway, by the way in which, why we’re on this chart, of why actual property has such the next LT V is it’s just because it’s institutionalized and securitized that debt is such a serious a part of the transaction versus farmland which has simply traditionally been owned outright. What’s the explanation?

Craig:

The banking system may be very aware of industrial actual property as an asset class. Multi-family workplace buildings, the banking system is de facto designed round that. In farming, in agriculture, you had some debt will increase in principally the ’70s and you then had a farm disaster of debt disaster in late ’70s, early ’80s. And banks have been principally foreclosing on farmland that was not well-liked with farmers and you’ll principally have farmers boycotting the auctions that they’d have. And so lenders didn’t wish to lend into the area, farmers didn’t need something to do with the banks as properly. And a part of that was induced, truly … What drove it’s in 1971 the U.S. modified its agricultural coverage to inform everybody to principally plant fence put up to fence put up and get huge or get out. Previous to that, previous to 1971, the coverage had been way more round conservation.

About 10% of the farmland was all the time not farmed and in conservation reserve packages. 1971 rolls round and due to some political points with Russia, the us on the time, the coverage grew to become, let’s overproduce corn and drive down the value. You had lots of people taking over debt to plant extra corn after which the value declines induced issues with solvency for them with all of the debt.

Meb:

And I feel with anybody who’s been burned by debt too, you get some PTSD or actually any kind of market atmosphere that burns you as soon as. You will have a really vivid reminiscence of that. I think about a part of that’s a part of the story too for farmers, the place the dad and mom and grandparents down the generations have been like, “No matter you do, don’t take out a bunch of debt on these farms.”

Craig:

The children who develop up in that atmosphere are those who’re operating, the banks now operating these organizations. Meb, for those who do an funding and you then determine you don’t like a sector, you simply don’t spend money on that sector anymore. In the event you’re a farmer, you’re a farmer, you’re not going to choose up and go work in a manufacturing unit. Yeah, so the people who find themselves on the land, that’s why you solely have 13% debt on the whole sector. And it’s actually the ethos of the sector at this level. The federal government truly has two GSEs, authorities sponsored enterprises targeted on lending to farmers. You get actually advantageous charges. There’s Farmer Mac, which is like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which lends to establishments.

After which there’s the farm credit score system. We simply truly within the property that we acquired, we simply took over a mortgage from the farm credit score system and that’s all arrange as cooperative. They really provide you with a rebate in your loans. Our web curiosity on that mortgage is 3.99% on there after that rebate. So there’s good lending alternatives, however we do like having low leverage on the farmland, generally none. Truly often we like to purchase it a 100% fairness after which do enhancements with leverage if it’s not too long ago priced.

Meb:

Obtained it. Okay. It is sensible, I feel for most individuals after they give it some thought, that farmland intuitively, for those who have been to consider inflation or increased inflation intervals, why farmland would do properly, I really feel like that’s considerably of an apparent takeaway. The 2 issues that I mentioned have been actually huge surprises to me from the final podcast. One was what we simply talked about. Second was that the position of, you talked about organics and also you dropped on the final podcast that only one% of U.S. farmland is natural. Is that’s nonetheless the case? That appeared like a surprisingly low quantity to me.

Craig:

Nicely, nice information, is as much as 1.2%.

Meb:

Oh child, it’s up 20%. That’s a greater strategy to say it, 20% enhance. That’s loopy.

Craig:

It’s a surprisingly low quantity. Over 6% of the U.S. meals finances is spent on natural meals. The extra margins are nice, so 50 to 200% value premiums are there. And there’s super client demand. The CEO of Costco, 10% of all natural meals within the U.S. is offered via Costco, so it’s an incredible channel, however their CEO says that they’ll’t get sufficient organics to remain in enterprise day after day. So it’s actually a provide restricted market. If there was extra natural meals, you’d have a bigger market, however you want that licensed natural land with a view to develop natural meals with a view to serve that market. And it’s that three yr transition to natural that basically holds individuals again, holds farmers again from changing.

Meb:

My brother’s doing it proper now in Western Kansas, for those who’re watching this on YouTube, this may even be me do the farm he’s doing. And he says it’s not straightforward and it takes some time.

Craig:

Three years to get licensed. And one of many huge challenges is definitely you’ll be able to’t simply mono crop, like essentially the most operationally environment friendly manner of managing farmland is to farm one crop yr after yr after yr, proper? And solely rotate when it’s a must to. In the event you’re taking a look at maximizing soil well being and doing regenerative agriculture, you then want principally 4 crops grown every year and that you must rotate these fields over time.

Meb:

Is that a part of a requirement for the natural label or is that extra on the regenerative facet or how’s that work?

Craig:

That’s extra on the regenerative facet, however as a result of we try this, it makes it very straightforward for us to get licensed natural. Usually in crops that you must rotate your crops. In the event you attempt to develop corn three, 4, 5 years in a row, you’re going to have all types of soil pests, all types of above floor pests. You’re going to have an incredible quantity of weeds and you really want to interrupt that cycle. And so what most farmers within the Midwest do, is that they maximize the time they’ll do the corn by doing genetically engineered crops and making use of a lot of pesticides and herbicides on the land after which rotating. The rotation that they do is simply often one yr to soybeans, which have a complete completely different set of pests after which rotate again, provides slightly little bit of soil nitrogen as properly, after which rotate again into corn.

That’s the first rotation, but it surely’s very depending on genetically modified crops and many pesticides and herbicides. If you wish to go away from that, use extra pure programs, you then want these at the very least three, however typically 4 crops every year after which rotating over time. That’s very difficult for a farmer. And if you concentrate on the common commodity farmer within the U.S. has about $8.5 million price of land and tools and so they make simply $250,000 a yr. But when they take three years and convert that via to natural, that’s $750,000 that they’re not going to must ship their youngsters to school or fund their retirement or varied issues like that. So that basically is a giant barrier.

Meb:

this chart, I really like when issues are quite simple for me on the investing facet, and to me, 6% natural meals market share, 6.3, 1.2% natural crop land, there’s a ramification there to be earned and it’s getting wider, by the way in which. And if there’s value premiums, 50 200% value premiums natural, why are extra individuals not making the most of this? What’s the hindrance?

Craig:

A part of the difficulty is that farmers themselves, 98% of farmland is owned by the farmers and a couple of% is institutional. The large barrier to the present farmers is that three yr conversion interval. It’s how do they fund in essence that transition to natural. There’s lots of experience points, such as you truly must understand how to do that. It’s a lot more durable to develop 4 completely different crops every year and discover completely different markets to promote them to and have the tools to try this as properly. Scale turns into very, essential to deal with that. On the institutional facet, we’re at 250 million. We’re one of many 14 largest farmland managers within the U.S. which is a stunning quantity for those who’re used to different types of industrial actual property. However we’re the biggest targeted on natural and regenerative agriculture. I’d truly love for there to be extra competitors on this area.

I feel that there’s an incredible alternative on this, however once I go searching on the different institutional traders, two issues maintain them again. One remains to be a basic bias in opposition to natural, like the final bias in opposition to natural agriculture. Which to some extent goes away on the floor. However the farm managers beneath that also actually, actually consider that. They actually inform me that natural doesn’t work, despite the fact that it’s a $60 billion a yr enterprise, in order that’s not true. After which the second factor is that they’re speaking to their traders about shopping for an asset that generates regular money move from day one. They speak concerning the money move that they generate from day one, and you’ll’t take it via a worth add course of for those who offered the on getting money move from day one. We inform our traders they’re not going to get money move for 3 years.

We’re going to take it via the natural conversion course of after which we’re going to get the stepped up rents from $300 an acre to $750 an acre, or it may be 4 or 5 years if we’re changing a part of the land over to natural blueberries or wine grapes or different crops like that. Extra what are known as everlasting crops. And when the traders are available with that good long run time prize and that 5 years or extra time horizon, and so they know upfront they’re not going to get money move proper to start with. Then it makes lots of sense, but it surely additionally shrinks the pool of traders.

Meb:

As we’re speaking about this natural transformation, is it a giant value? I’m pondering of boundaries and it simply appears so apparent to me. Is it one thing that, is there a giant payment to pay for this to get licensed? Is there lots of documentation? I imply, you and I have been joking earlier than this started and I used to be lamenting how problematic coping with simply authorities allowing was for simply renovating our workplace. It’s been occurring for six months, it ought to have taken one week, possibly. We didn’t even do something, so we cleaned up the area. However I imply, my God, simply coping with the federal government. Is that this a giant barrier or is it truly, when you discover ways to do it pretty templated and easy and as costly, what’s the method for somebody who’s by no means been via it?

Craig:

It may be so simple as simply basically not farming the land for 3 years after which farming natural crops. It’s extra difficult in that while you’re switching from probably monocropping corn to 4 numerous crops, you could have 4 occasions the complexity that you simply had earlier than. Our farm administration staff will get the land licensed natural. We map out a 10-year crop rotation plan on the land, and by shopping for at the very least $50 million price of farmland in a single tight geographic space, we’ve got sufficient that we are able to say, “Okay, nice. Nicely, we’ve got 600 acres of land out there for tomatoes yearly for the following 10 years. It’s simply going to rotate across the farm.” A part of the land can go in pasture, for instance, half to natural greens, half to grains, after which again into pasture. However yearly the identical ratios of land are there. And so we’ll exit and we’ll discover the very best sheep and cattle tenants for the pasture, the very best natural tomato farmers or natural candy corn farmers for the vegetable rotations, inexperienced beans and the very best grain farmers as properly. After which lease that out as basically multi-tenant industrial actual property.

Meb:

Sounds altogether too wise. Let’s speak slightly bit about you guys final couple years. You possibly can both do it via case research, you would simply discuss broad phrases, what you guys have been on the lookout for, what you’ve been shopping for, any market developments you wish to discuss, have costs. I imply I’ve seen your returns and I understand how the funds work, however any overview you need you’ll be able to kick it off and we are able to undergo any which manner you need.

Craig:

In all probability the easiest way to reply your query is an instance of a farm that we’ve taken all through the conversion course of and actually created much more variety on that. And there’s a brand new slide up right here if individuals wish to take a look at that on YouTube. However one of many properties that we purchased was a 4,000 acre farm about 55 miles east of San Francisco. And we purchased it for round $30 million. I used to be not too long ago appraised for slightly over $77 million, and the conversion course of was fairly attention-grabbing. Once we purchased it, it was nice farmland, a few of the oldest water rights in California, truly pre-1914 water rights. Our water rights are senior to the state of California. We will speak concerning the worth of water, Meb as a result of I feel that’s among the finest causes to purchase farmland, is definitely to get what I feel is essentially the most miss priced asset class round which is water.

However simply taking a look at farmland for this case research is, we purchased this property, had two tenant farmers on the land every farming about 2,000 acres, and so they had been farming it for round 50 years. And each of them have been utilizing the very same crop rotation on the land, about two-thirds alfalfa, 25% corn and the remainder of it, about 5% tomatoes on that land, simply rotating round via a five-year crop rotation. And the income was below $350 an acre for that. Once we purchased it, we took it via an natural conversion course of. One of many farmers needed nothing to do with changing to natural. He was a 91-year-old man who had made a ton of cash in promoting land for property growth and simply loved farming 10,000 acres. And he mentioned, “You guys need this 2,000 acres again, we’re carried out. Simply tell us while you need it.”

And the opposite group we truly labored with to assist truly do the work on the land as we have been changing it to natural. And fast-forward to in the present day, the place prior to now there have been no natural acres, we now have over 2,900 acres licensed natural and in everlasting crops. Went from three standard crops to 12 crops in the present day. And went from two farmer tenants to seven farmer tenants on that land. And elevated the income per acre for us from just below $350 an acre to over $800 per acre. Actually vital enhance within the efficiency of the land, and it really works. And really these numbers replicate solely one of many issues that we’ve carried out is we recognized a few of the floor that was simply perfect for natural blueberries on that floor, so about 600 acres.

We went out, we established a partnership with Driscolls, we’ve got experience in blueberries, so we truly planted them ourselves, and we’re simply partway via the maturation means of these blueberries. Our web final yr, web revenue was over $1,100 per acre on these blueberries that’ll develop to round $10,000 per acre maturity. The numbers that I’m quoting over $800 per acre will truly enhance fairly considerably as that matures.

Meb:

You guys use slightly little bit of debt, I do know, we talked about it to start with. How do you see that? Are there any kind of fence posts or broad factors of reference you utilize for the way a lot debt you’ll make use of on a farm or an operation or a purchase order? How do you concentrate on it?

Craig:

It’s fairly delicate to debt costs. Up till just a few years in the past we have been very comfy with debt. Sometimes, we want to see 30% plus or minus 10% on debt is an affordable LTV quantity as the costs elevated. And due to a few of the debt that was out there within the area with the federal government sponsored enterprises, you have been capable of get it at a reduction to already low cost free cash charges. Now the debt markets are simply not purposeful. Because the charges have been going up, we shifted over to a 100% fairness for purchasing the properties after which utilizing debt to do the enhancements. However now we’re just about taking a look at only a 100% fairness for the entire thing. Within the case we have been capable of assume this debt at 3.99%. In order that’s unacceptable, and it’s solely just a bit over 20% of the asset.

Meb:

We’ve had you on the podcast earlier than, we’ve had plenty of farmers on the podcast, and I feel for those who have been to do the phrase cloud or take a look at the phrases that get used most, water’s up there. Perhaps dig slightly extra, inform us slightly deeper about why that is so vital? How do you defend your self in opposition to errors right here or getting in hassle with a property that both might not have the precise water rights or that sooner or later with regards to world warming or altering geopolitics and borders, the way you defend your self?

Craig:

And we’ve got a giant display principally on which areas are going to be neutrally or positively impacted by local weather change, which of them are going to be negatively impacted? And thru this, the chance to purchase water has been simply actually eye-opening for us. We truly worth the dust and the water individually, and while you try this, we regularly really feel like we’re shopping for the dust and getting the water totally free.

Meb:

I used to be going to say, what’s the standard breakdown for those who have been to really … Is it 90% land worth, 10% water mentally? I do know there’s in all probability not an actual breakdown, however is there a assemble you concentrate on it?

Craig:

That’s truly fairly good, and it’s truly simply wacky, really the water costs are actually simply damaged. However I’ll provide you with some examples to anchor this. In Oregon, for instance, 10, 12, about 15 years in the past or so, the dry land costs have been as little as $2,500 an acre, and the water rights have been one other $2,500 an acre. So the irrigated land may promote for $5,000. Okay, however you fast-forward to in the present day. The dry land costs are round 10,000 an acre and irrigated land is round $12,500 an acre. The land costs have elevated, however the worth of the water rights hasn’t elevated throughout that point.

That’s a spot that we are able to take a look at very, superb information, the worth of that water proper, both on a money move foundation or on an asset worth foundation. As a result of actually water is a property, identical to proudly owning a chunk of actual property, simply related to farmland, blended and blurred along with farmland. Water is one thing that basically has super worth. Australia has arrange a water market, the USA has not. If that occurs it will likely be an enormous change.

Meb:

You guys presently are California, Oregon, Washington, is that proper?

Craig:

That’s right.

Meb:

Going again to how traders take into consideration this, the place it slots in. We’ve lengthy talked about actual property and actual property usually are not homogenous. You will have actual property, which is clearly very completely different, industrial actual property. Even inside industrial actual property you could have information facilities, you could have single household housing, you could have workplace area, college, medical, on and on and on. You will have farmland and issues like that. However even once more, inside farmland you could have corn and wheat within the Midwest versus blueberries within the northwest versus hashish in California versus wine grapes. It’s additionally a really numerous asset class. Which have been mentioned, we are inclined to lump actual property collectively for related traits. However 2022 is an effective instance. The place many kinds of actual property did very poorly farmland was in all probability to my information, one of many solely few lengthy solely property that had nice efficiency. Is {that a} honest remark? I’m making an attempt to think about even what else might have endured final yr. Shares and bonds clearly did horrible, however farmland put up a strong yr. Is that correct?

Craig:

That’s correct truly. On common, farmland is up about 10% and only one yr over yr, so ’21 to ’22 and a few areas just like the Midwest are up. I’m taking a look at Iowa for instance, at up 19.7% after which some areas on the West Coast round eight, 9, 10% as properly. Farmland actually is attention-grabbing in that 53% of U.S. farmland grows two commodity crops, corn and soy. And most of that farmland is within the Midwest. And so when you concentrate on farmland costs, the dominant value is that Midwestern farmland, however there’s 300 completely different crops rising on the West Coast and it gives 50% or extra of fruits, nuts and greens for instance within the U.S. so very, very, very giant markets which are diversified. One of many attention-grabbing issues concerning the Midwest farmland is that it’s very liquid. So the public sale markets that they’ve within the Midwest and all of the farmland is offered based mostly on CSR factors, corn suitability ranking factors, so how a lot corn are you able to develop per acre is what it’s priced on.

And so it successfully turns into virtually this commodity priced asset with a liquid market via the public sale system that may change very quickly. And there was lots of capital going into that area. But it surely ends in imbalances, as a result of the farmland, for instance on the West Coast doesn’t have that very same liquid markets. In the event you’re an out of doors investor, a non-professional investor, it’s more durable to search out property and more durable to search out an operator for these property. And in order that’s why these markets have gone up lower than the Midwest. and it ends in imbalances as a result of for those who truly do some math and also you say, “Hey, how a lot corn can I develop per acre in Iowa versus our farm in Washington?” And one factor that folks don’t know is that farmland the place we’re in Washington truly produces essentially the most quantity of corn per acre in any county within the U.S. Partially because-

Meb:

That’s stunning to me.

Craig:

It’s a fantastic rising local weather, however partially as a result of it’s irrigated so we are able to present simply the correct quantity of water that’s wanted, whereas the Iowa farmland is extra rain fed and slightly bit topic to the variability, so we are able to make it rain precisely the place we wish it to. It’s very excessive productive farmland, however the value of that farmland, Iowa farmland has been promoting for $20,000 an acre was a excessive value. Now they’ve had farmland gross sales at $30,000 an acre. The farmland the place we’re in Washington, for instance, is nearer to $15,000 an acre. Produces the identical quantity of corn per acre. for those who needed to provide corn, Doesn’t it make extra sense to purchase, for instance in Washington than in Iowa? Sure, however it’s a very regionalized market. And it’s affected by the liquidity of those markets as properly. Then it’s a extremely attention-grabbing sector and it’s very not correlated. It’s correlated with cash printing and never correlated with the debt markets. And that’s I feel a great basic place to be macroeconomically.

Meb:

And because the world goes haywire and you’ll watch shares and bonds go up 10% in a day, you’ll be able to say, “right here’s my farm, I can’t do something with it,” which I feel is a characteristic, not a bug. Speak to us slightly bit about the way you guys put collectively these funds. So for traders, is it nonetheless accredited solely, what’s the minimums?

Craig:

It’s accredited solely, it’s 506(c) which permits us to speak publicly about what we do, and that’s a brand new jobs act construction. It’s limitless quantity of capital that we are able to elevate normally, but it surely does imply that each investor who is available in needs to be verified, third-party accredited on that. 50K minimal, We would like individuals to have the ability to take part.

Meb:

Oh man, that’s accessible, that’s nice.

Craig:

We attempt to make it as accessible as doable. And we do have institutional traders, giant wealth administration corporations have their purchasers make investments with us and excessive net-worth people and household places of work as properly.

Meb:

After I get round is promoting a few of my farmland, I’ll make investments some proceeds with you guys. I like what you’re doing. Each time which may be, at some point. Speak to us slightly bit about, all proper, so fund three for instance versus the prior funds. What’s the purpose on the composition of that? Is it going to be 5 completely different geographies? Is it going to be one particular geography, kinds of crops? How do individuals get the cash out? What are the mechanics of the fund for somebody who might make investments in the present day? Can they withdraw on 20? I’m making an attempt to do the maths. What are we, 2020, 2033. I can’t even say it someday sooner or later.

Craig:

2023 is true now. We’ll truly launch that fund this quarter on there. We simply acquired this anchor 1,100 acre property, in any other case we might have launched fund three already, however that’s a pleasant anchor property for us. Our technique relies on shopping for at the very least $50 million price of farmland and one tight geographic space. So we are able to have an onsite farm supervisor and actually handle that as you’d handle a 400-unit residence constructing. And that makes it very easy for us to purchase the 100-unit residence constructing subsequent door or the 1,000-unit residence constructing subsequent door with out actually increasing our headcount on that. We’ve got three main hubs, Northern California, Oregon and the Willamette Valley and Washington. These are nice rising areas. The brand new fund will elevate someplace between 250 and $500 million and by farmland typically in these geographies. Plus we’ll add yet one more geography.

At this level it’s in all probability going to emphasise Oregon and Washington simply we just like the pricing dynamics the place they’re proper now. We predict there’s lots of alternative in these areas. And the funding typically, it’s formally a 10-year fund with one yr non-compulsory extensions. We inform the traders to not anticipate money move in the course of the first three years after which because it’s out there, we’ll distribute that money move, then they’ll have a chance to exit on the finish or they’ll keep in so long as they need. So, I view these as form of 30 plus yr property, farmlands simply this nice asset class. And so we’ve designed it in order that sure, our job is to extend the money move and supply liquidity to traders as shortly as doable. But in addition not drive them out, not drive them to have a taxable loss after which simply attempt to search for one other property.

Meb:

I think about some individuals are desirous about this generationally the place if given their selection, they’d in all probability simply roll or proceed with the properties. Not indefinitely, however definitely for the foreseeable future.

Craig:

That’s how I give it some thought. For me, I do wish to give the traders liquidity as shortly as doable, however I additionally wish to be stored on my toes and never give them a cause to wish to exit. These are nice property and we do give it some thought multi-generation.

Meb:

What occasions over the previous few years has induced essentially the most curiosity? In the event you might correlate it? I’m wondering if Silicon Valley Financial institution, in my thoughts there’s sure issues that’ll simply drive cash elsewhere. Silicon Valley Financial institution is the kind of factor. It’s like, all proper, properly A, I obtained to determine if I’ve an excessive amount of cash in a single financial institution. B, is it a financial institution which will disappear below the ether? B, ought to I be getting a greater return on my cash than 0%, or one thing like COVID, or one thing like inflation actually ramping up? Previous couple of years, I imply clearly 60/40 getting smashed final yr whereas farmland outperformed it by what, 20 proportion factors, some simply astonishing quantity. Is there something particularly the place your telephone begins ringing off the hook otherwise you beginning to get emails, aside from the Med Faber Present? The rest that’s like, oh, individuals are truly waking as much as this idea?

Craig:

Nicely, you do have very sensible traders that aren’t pondering contained in the field, and also you’ve simply carried out an exceptional job on actually articulating a few of the advanced developments which are taking place in nice methods for transferring ahead. However actually in the course of the COVID interval, I obtained the sense that folks have been actually wanting, they have been involved concerning the world economic system. The federal government had simply printed an incredible amount of cash, elevated cash provide 30% or extra, and so they needed to place their cash someplace protected. And in order that was a basic theme for individuals. And that did have a great impact on individuals coming to Farmland LP.

Meb:

Yeah, I’m all the time desirous about the place traders come from, their motivations. And in your space it’s attention-grabbing as a result of there’s people who in all probability come to you from A, “I don’t have farmland publicity facet.” There’s individuals which are taking a look at it from a pure diversification or return perspective. There’s different individuals which are in all probability taking a look at it from actually a regenerative natural stewardship. They’re like, “Hey, I wish to make investments, however I wish to make investments someplace the place it’s considerate versus faceless or do no evil, mentioned in a different way.” After which I think about it’s additionally a mixture of people, household workplace, all sorts. Do you suppose it’s just a bit little bit of every part? What’s your expertise been over the previous variety of years? You going to get all, I think about it’s slightly more durable for the common monetary advisor. I imply, except they’re putting say, “Hey purchasers, bunch of you guys make investments.” Since you don’t have a public car, which for that channel makes it slightly more durable for somebody at UBS or Morgan Stanley or one thing. There’s slightly little bit of every part and motivation’s assorted as properly.

Craig:

I feel so. However Invoice Gates popping out as one of many largest farmland homeowners, I feel additionally had an impression on individuals. And for those who do the maths round that, he put round 5% of his property in farmland. And that’s a great anchor quantity for individuals. You need to have diversified industrial actual property publicity, actual property publicity, and round 5% in farmland is only a adequate for Invoice Gates. And I do suppose that there’s simply elevated concern about how leveraged in a basic sense, not with a capital L, not with a capital debt standpoint, however how leveraged the monetary markets are and the way leveraged individuals’s portfolios are simply to shares and bonds.

Meb:

One of many questions I needed to ask was, what’s … I toured one of many largest greenhouses on the earth a few week in the past. It’s primarily tomatoes and hashish, but it surely’s probably the most technologically superior buildings I’ve been in, I feel ever. And also you begin to see the position of robotics actually speed up on the farm. I imply, I joke on right here on a regular basis that probably the most superior items of equipment for my childhood was driving round on a tractor, which a few years in the past had GPS and a TV and every part, air con. However in the present day it’s like subsequent stage and it appears to be accelerating. What are your ideas there? I imply, I think about one of many ways in which you guys might even farm eight various kinds of crops is the flexibility to effectively work these various kinds of, it’s completely different to chop some wheat than it’s to reap some strawberries on and on. What’s the position that automation’s enjoying and the way shortly is that like adoption curve taking place right here in 2023?

Craig:

There’s an incredible quantity of expertise that’s being superior on the farm. And it’s tractors, chopping heads, automated harvesting tools for everlasting crops as properly, not simply wheat and corn that you simply may usually take into consideration. However for instance, for those who take a look at blueberry harvesting. One blueberry harvester with 4 individuals on it may possibly harvest as a lot as 125 hand harvesters. And actually most blueberry fields on the market are arrange for hand harvesting. You need to principally do every part completely different together with your crops and your plantings and your rows and your varietal choice, et cetera to have the ability to do the machine harvest. However you get recent market high quality blueberries with 4 individuals as a substitute of 125 individuals. So you actually get dramatic value financial savings, high quality will increase as properly.

Speaking concerning the vertical farming, we might do vertical farming on our land. We’ve got lots of nice land. We’ve got water, sunshine, labor, et cetera. However once I do the maths, and AppHarvest might be a great instance, to do a 60 acre greenhouse would value them round $2.5 million per acre for that greenhouse. And for that very same amount of cash that it prices them to construct a 60 acre greenhouse, I might purchase 10,000 acres of irrigated farmland. Greenhouses are depreciating property. Their working prices are excessive, sometimes round twice the fee per pound of meals than farmland grown stuff. However actually in 10 years the query is, “Nicely, would you reasonably personal a 10-year outdated 60 acre greenhouse or 10,000 acres of irrigated farmland?”

Simply from an funding standpoint, I’m a giant fan. I nonetheless suppose there’s super worth on the farmland facet. If I assumed that there was lots of alternative within the managed atmosphere sector, we’d be investing there as properly. But it surely’s actually slender number of crops. Issues which have a fast turnover and excessive greenback worth per sq. foot are the issues that make sense. So suppose tomatoes, strawberries, hashish, et cetera.

Meb:

Yeah. What’s the hip ranking and why are you guys primary?

Craig:

Oh, as a result of we’re superior. One of many issues, I’ll pop that up on the display if individuals wish to take a look at that. And possibly I’ll provide you with only a fast little bit of the backstory. We’re very science oriented in what we do, as a result of we purchase farmland and converter to natural regeneratively managed farmland, the USDA was truly … And do it at scale. The USDA was truly very fascinated about what the ecological worth was of what we did. They really gave us a $250,000 grant and we introduced in two consulting corporations to have a look at what we did and quantify it for us. And so these two corporations checked out each tractor move, each crop that went on the bottom, each enter that went in, and on $50 million price of farmland these guys confirmed not solely did we ship a 70% web financial acquire to the investor, however we additionally delivered 46% web acquire to the ecosystem within the type of soil, carbon sequestered, cleaned water, clear air, et cetera, biodiversity.

And for those who dig into the numbers slightly bit, what it confirmed is that if that land had been managed conventionally, it will have induced $8.5 million price of ecosystem service hurt. And the way in which that we managed it created $12.5 million price of ecosystem service profit. So, an actual double backside line return each to the traders and to the ecosystem. Partially due to that scientific report that we did we introduced within the largest ESG scores agency to offer us a rating on our system. We do a bunch of various scores, however we introduced these guys in and this group does the scores for MSCI. In the event you see an ESG scores on MSCI, these are the backend guys behind it.

They went in, we went via a three-month course of with them. They rating you on a number of completely different measures and provide you with an final rating out of a 100 factors. In the event you get 50 or beneath, you’re doing dangerous for the world. In the event you get 50 or above, you’re doing good for the world. The common agricultural agency of their system has a rating of 17, so not doing properly for the world. And we obtained the best rating that they’ve ever given to any one among their 10,000 companies. We obtained a rating of 82 on that. And we beat insurance coverage firms and tech firms and biotech firms and all types of firms on that. And there’s a 12-page report that’s out there on this. However for us it’s essential not solely to get licensed natural, which is a federal regulated normal. But in addition have these third social gathering scores which are delivered. You possibly can’t get a 100 on stuff. Some faux trade scoring is rather like, “Oh, you’re all sustainable.” “Nicely, oh nice, I assume we are able to go residence. We’re all carried out.”

But it surely’s truly actually vital, identical to you by no means say, “Oh, we’re carried out when it comes to delivering earnings on the sustainability facet,” there’s all the time one other step you’ll be able to take. There’s all the time issues you’ll be able to enhance on and that’s why we like issues like this hip rating.

Meb:

Is there any carbon credit score angle to this at any level, or I’m all the time pondering of other yield. Clearly, farmland is a fairly easy return stream, whether or not it’s via the crops in addition to appreciation of the land. Are there different various yield sources you guys ever take a look at for these properties? Is carbon one among them?

Craig:

We sequester about half a ton to a ton of carbon per yr on every of our 15,000 acres. It’s a fantastic, basically byproduct of specializing in wholesome soil biology and good land practices. Cowl cropping for instance is without doubt one of the finest methods to extend, so soil carbon, and it’s solely carried out on about 3% of farmland acres within the U.S. Farmland is the second-largest carbon sink out there after the oceans. There’s actually an incredible alternative to sequester carbon there. The problem has been, it’s difficult to really mixture the carbon. Each completely different soil kind, each completely different geography, each completely different crop rotation has a unique protocol that must be developed with a view to quantify the quantity of carbon, at the very least based on the way in which that the carbon markets are structured in the present day.

And the profit, if carbon costs are $20 per ton, they may be increased than that now, however let’s use $20 a ton. If we’re sequestering half a ton to a ton of carbon per yr, that’s 10 to $20 further earnings per yr on that, which is okay. In the event you’re producing $300 an acre standard lease and you may get an additional 10 or 20 bucks, properly, okay, that’s good. But when I can convert it to natural and get $750 an acre lease, that 10 to $20 doesn’t change my habits.

Meb:

Yeah, and specializing in the large return, the large muscle motion, the large return driver, it makes much more sense than the rounding errors. As we simply had Ramit Sethi on the podcast mentioned, “Concentrate on $50,000 issues as a substitute of $5 issues.” Now he’s speaking about lattes and different issues, however I feel it applies. I typically get seduced in the same method in our enterprise of getting distracted by shiny concepts when the primary focus is true in entrance of my face, really easy to do. Craig, we talked about so much. What did we miss? Something that we haven’t touched on in the present day that you simply suppose is vital or significant that we glossed over?

Craig:

The magical factor about farmland. And once I began, we didn’t have this, crop insurance coverage, so natural crop insurance coverage. Principally the commodity sector has had this glorious profit for crop insurance coverage, authorities funded crop insurance coverage. The federal government subsidizes crop insurance coverage by 40 to 60%, and so they make it possible for the farmer, the federal government has the vested curiosity in ensuring that meals is produced yearly. And so, one of many key methods they do that’s to offer crop insurance coverage for individuals. And that makes certain that these farmers can keep in enterprise decade after decade, irrespective of the climate cycles. In the event you don’t develop meals one yr, you’ve obtained an actual societal concern. That is the explanation why the federal government will principally make it possible for all of the farmers succeed.

Nicely, it takes 10 years the way in which the crop insurance coverage is about up. It takes 10 years’ price of rising a selected kind of crop in a selected county to ensure that it to be eligible for crop insurance coverage. Nicely, we’re now 25 years into natural certification. We’ve obtained a ton of crop variety that’s now out there for crop insurance coverage from the federal government. And so we’re capable of get crop insurance coverage for increased revenue margin crops that basically take away the danger. You get 80% crop insurance coverage in your crops. We develop 40 completely different crops throughout our farms, so we get lots of inherent diversification and with that crop insurance coverage on it. It actually creates this beautiful magical asset class. You don’t have lease insurance coverage to your residence buildings or workplace constructing insurance coverage in your workplace buildings, however we’ve got authorities funded crop insurance coverage on this. It’s a fairly matched asset class, solely 2% institutionally owned, and that creates some actually great dynamics for traders to nonetheless get into the area.

Meb:

Hear, hear. Nicely, what’s the longer term seem like for you guys? I imply, final time we talked, I imply, I feel the reply I think about is simply plant and develop, proper? Increase a bit and carry on doing what you’re doing. However is there the rest in your mind that you simply’re desirous about as we glance out to 2024, 2025?

Craig:

We’ve spent the previous variety of years actually constructing out our farm administration firm. We’ve got this 45-person farm administration firm that basically is simply wonderful. Every little thing is finished at value, it’s not a revenue middle for us. We do it at value. In order we scale up these prices principally get amortized over extra acres. I feel we’re at a really good stage to develop these areas that we’re in with out rising headcount on that and actually benefiting from the economies of scale. And we’ll simply proceed to be targeted and execute on shopping for prime quality farmland with nice water rights into the longer term. Long run we’ll create these, we’ll do one thing enjoyable round as soon as the property are all absolutely money flowing in order that it’s simpler for everybody to take part in, however we are able to discuss that in a yr or two.

Meb:

Now that we’re out of COVID you do any extra real-world meetups? You maintain any occasions on the farm? The place can individuals discover out extra about you guys? What’s the very best locations?

Craig:

Yeah, so our web site @farmlandlp.com is a good place to get involved with us. We’re truly having an investor occasion at our California farm that has the blueberries initially of June. After which within the fall we’ve got investor occasion up in Oregon the place we harvest wine grapes. We actually prefer to get the traders out to the farms.

Meb:

Yeah, man, that must be a straightforward promote. It’s just like the Buffet, the Berkshire assembly ticket. So long as you’re an investor, you get entree, you bought to stomp some grapes, you bought to get your ft moist.

Craig:

Just about. It’s fairly wonderful to get again out on the farm and actually truly see sustainable regenerative agriculture occur at scale. And folks say our blueberries are the very best tasting blueberries that folks have ever had, and it’s lots of enjoyable.

Meb:

Cool. Nicely, Craig, it’s been lots of enjoyable as ordinary, becoming a member of you, catching an replace. Thanks a lot for becoming a member of us in the present day.

Craig:

Nice speaking to you, Meb as all the time.

Meb:

Listeners, for those who loved this episode, take a look at the hyperlink within the present notes for our first episode of Craig that was launched on the finish of 2020. Podcast listeners will put up present notes to in the present day’s dialog mebfaber.com/podcast. In the event you love the present, for those who hate it, shoot us suggestions at [email protected]. We like to learn the opinions. Please overview us on iTunes and subscribe the present anyplace good podcasts are discovered. Thanks for listening, mates, and good investing.