An N=1, T=1166 reply to what causes weight acquire and weight reduction

TL;DR: On this put up, I share how I misplaced 15 kilos (≈ 7 kg) in lower than 4 months and saved it off for six months (and counting). I did this by consuming solely throughout sure hours of the day, altering what I ate, and exercising extra. I additionally clarify how these three issues work collectively to assist me drop some weight and keep wholesome. Furthermore, I counsel how different individuals would possibly profit from attempting one thing comparable.

Think about skipping breakfast each single day for 4 and a half years. Sounds loopy, proper? Effectively, that’s precisely what I’ve been doing since my mother-in-law first launched me to intermittent fasting (or time-restricted consuming, because the consultants name it).

Intermittent fasting is a well-liked pattern amongst well being fanatics who declare it might provide help to drop some weight, enhance your metabolism, and forestall illnesses. However does it actually work, and if it does, is it price not consuming so often? Latest medical proof on this subject appears to contradict well-liked opinion (see right here, right here, and right here) by stating that fasting doesn’t result in weight reduction in the long term. Is there a proof that might reconcile these contradictions?

To resolve this for myself, I made a decision to observe 4 main well being variables day-after-day for over three years: fasting period, pedometer steps, sleep, and physique weight. This put up comprises a full evaluation of the ensuing information (information and R code are publicly accessible right here). Hopefully will probably be clear what has and hasn’t labored for me. And possibly what has labored for me will give you the results you want! However, in fact, that’s the difficulty with N=1 analyses: it’s unimaginable to know the way they may generalize.

• It’s attainable (and possibly even simple?) to realize weight even whereas aggressively shortening consuming intervals!

  That is the factor that shocked me essentially the most.

• I misplaced about 15 kilos over a 3-4 month interval by combining time-restricted consuming, weight-reduction plan, and common train. What you devour throughout your consuming interval appears to matter way more than how quick your consuming interval is.

• Train doesn’t have to be formidable, high-intensity, or time-consuming to be efficient.

• Fasting appears to produce other advantages except for weight reduction: Since I start proscribing my consuming intervals day-after-day, I haven’t gotten sick—no flu, no Covid, nothing apart from an occasional delicate chilly—and I’ve usually simply felt “higher.”

  This video gives some proof on different well being metrics that I can’t measure myself.

• It’s loads of work to keep up a wholesome physique weight on the planet we reside in. And odds are that I’ve a genetic benefit to start out with!

Primarily based on my expertise, plainly others may gain advantage from adopting the next behaviors on a constant foundation:

• Sustainability is vital: discover stuff you like and lean into them. Don’t be afraid to sometimes cheat, however in the event you cheat an excessive amount of, then you definately’ve modified your program.

• Stroll day-after-day for the equal of 1 hour—about 3 miles. It doesn’t have to be in a single go, and would possibly even be extra helpful if it’s not .

• Take note of what you’re consuming. Decreasing sugar, processed carbohydrates, and seed oils appears to have a excessive cost-benefit ratio.

• It’s not a lot “eat much less, transfer extra” as it’s “eat sensible, transfer sensible.” “Sensible” right here is “sustainable” (see the bullet level above). What isn’t sensible is adopting the favored exercise-for-reward mindset. Considering, “I ran a 5K so now I can take pleasure in this [food that is objectively bad for me]” will not be wholesome.

• Altering one’s preferences appears to be the one long-term resolution. And it’s a massively tough downside given the social function that meals performs all through our lives. Even when an individual decides to undertake a unique life-style, there’ll all the time be social gatherings amongst household, associates, or coworkers that includes meals that go in opposition to that particular person’s well being targets.

I saved monitor of my each day fasting period, weight, steps, and sleep from January 22, 2020 till April 1, 2023 (≈39 months or 1,166 days). Knowledge on fasting, steps, and sleep goes again even additional.

The image under tells a lot of the story.

I’ve constantly fasted for over 19 hours (on common) all through this era. My sleep hasn’t modified a lot (deviating by lower than 10 minutes). My steps and weight, nevertheless, assorted fairly a bit and are almost mirror photos of each other. When my weight was trending upward throughout 2020, my steps have been trending downward. Then when my weight began plummeting, my steps took off.

After all, everyone knows that two trending time sequence variables is no solution to decide causality. On this case, I do know that I made important adjustments to my weight-reduction plan on the identical time I used to be ramping up my steps.

I made the next adjustments after studying the e book Two Meals A Day in late July 2022 (see right here for extra particulars):

• Get at the least 7,000 steps every day (about 5 kilometers)

• Attempt to keep energetic all through the day by doing “microworkouts” or “motion snacks”

• Remove or dramatically scale back seed oils and processed carbohydrates (together with sugar) from weight-reduction plan

• Attempt to eat extra “ancestral meals” like kefir, nuts, eggs, organ meats, and many others.

These have been up to the mark I used to be already doing which can be arguably wholesome:

• No alcohol or tender drinks

• Placing at the least 18-22 hours between meals day-after-day

• Enjoying outdoors with my children almost day-after-day

• Enjoying pickup basketball as soon as every week

• Newbie-level calisthenics 2x-3x per week

Why wasn’t I seeing extra good points earlier than Two Meals A Day? In all probability as a result of I used to be nonetheless doing issues like consuming sugar cookies, donuts, pizza, ice cream, and Frito-Lay merchandise regularly.

I did a while sequence regression evaluation of my weight, utilizing an ADL or “autoregressive distributed lag” mannequin. The outcomes are on the very backside of this put up. Importantly, I used de-trended, seasonally adjusted information as not doing so might end in spurious correlations. Even then, it’s not clear how conclusive the evaluation is.

Some takeaways:

• physique weight has a excessive quantity of autocorrelation (one-day-lag coefficient of 0.68)

• steps, sleep, consuming window size, long-fasting, touring, and consuming pizza all at some stage “Granger trigger” weight, however the magnitudes and statistical significance have been decrease than I might have guessed.

To evaluate the impression of Two Meals A Day, I did a easy time forecast of my weight from the second earlier than I started this system. Right here’s what it appears like:

Whereas I doubt this forecast would cross muster at a severe educational journal, the essential result’s that my weight reduction was unlikely to have occurred by likelihood primarily based on the prior historical past.

On this weblog put up, I’ve shared my private expertise of preserving my weight below management by following some ostensibly easy tips. I’ve discovered what works for me, however will it work for different individuals? And, in that case, will different individuals be capable of regularly observe these tips? These are key questions.

Weight problems is just accelerating worldwide, so it’s necessary to determine easy methods to gradual its progress. Decreasing consumption of processed meals, tightening consuming home windows, and growing bodily exercise have been profitable methods for me to drop some weight. However I do know it’s not for everybody.

The broader query stays: is there a “shortcut” to staying at a wholesome weight that doesn’t contain fixed overanalysis of private conduct? Semaglutide and Wegovy have confirmed useful for individuals already overweight, however what about people who find themselves presently at a wholesome weight however attempting to keep away from changing into overweight? It appears that there’s a tight trade-off between scrumptious meals and obese or weight problems.

There’s additionally a philosophical query, properly acknowledged by Scott Alexander: “What can we do if the enemy [causing obesity] is deliciousness itself?” Ought to we try to rid ourselves of all culinary pleasure simply to be a bit more healthy? Would this even be attainable given how related authorities and agriculture are?

I’m undecided what the solutions to those questions are, however I plan to proceed following the trail I’ve documented right here. I additionally plan to examine in from time-to-time to report my progress and anything I’ve realized. One factor I’ve seen is that my meals preferences have modified. After separating myself from extremely rewarding meals, now I normally really feel sick if I deviate from my routine and eat some. I believe we as a (U.S.) nation and world could make loads of progress if we actually cease and take into consideration what our physique is telling us after we eat.

Here’s a listing of assets that I’ve discovered useful (in no explicit order)

Word: max = 168.6; min = 143.6

Under are some graphs of STL decompositions (which are supposed to web out traits and seasonality) for the three variables of curiosity:

Coefficients:
                           Estimate Std. Error t worth Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)                0.026470   0.031951   0.828  0.40759    
lag(weight_adj)            0.683718   0.030010  22.783  < 2e-16 ***
lag(weight_adj, 2)         0.066959   0.036294   1.845  0.06532 .  
lag(weight_adj, 3)         0.060335   0.036210   1.666  0.09594 .  
lag(weight_adj, 4)        -0.013098   0.036271  -0.361  0.71808    
lag(weight_adj, 5)         0.038685   0.036184   1.069  0.28524    
lag(weight_adj, 6)         0.019919   0.035834   0.556  0.57842    
lag(weight_adj, 7)         0.084189   0.029228   2.880  0.00405 ** 
lag(steps_adj)             0.027554   0.009965   2.765  0.00579 ** 
lag(steps_adj, 2)          0.004989   0.010187   0.490  0.62443    
lag(steps_adj, 3)         -0.007869   0.010180  -0.773  0.43966    
lag(steps_adj, 4)         -0.005481   0.010207  -0.537  0.59138    
lag(steps_adj, 5)          0.001039   0.010239   0.101  0.91917    
lag(steps_adj, 6)         -0.020589   0.010199  -2.019  0.04375 *  
lag(steps_adj, 7)         -0.007502   0.009963  -0.753  0.45161    
lag(sleep_adj)             0.118892   0.040923   2.905  0.00374 ** 
lag(sleep_adj, 2)          0.066188   0.040890   1.619  0.10580    
lag(sleep_adj, 3)          0.053902   0.040978   1.315  0.18865    
lag(sleep_adj, 4)          0.024485   0.041068   0.596  0.55116    
lag(sleep_adj, 5)          0.044860   0.041068   1.092  0.27492    
lag(sleep_adj, 6)         -0.042833   0.041056  -1.043  0.29704    
lag(sleep_adj, 7)          0.057118   0.040998   1.393  0.16384    
lag(fasting_adj)           0.002068   0.010871   0.190  0.84919    
lag(fasting_adj, 2)       -0.051258   0.011196  -4.578 5.22e-06 ***
lag(fasting_adj, 3)        0.014489   0.011374   1.274  0.20298    
lag(fasting_adj, 4)       -0.004086   0.011380  -0.359  0.71962    
lag(fasting_adj, 5)       -0.003944   0.011321  -0.348  0.72760    
lag(fasting_adj, 6)        0.014862   0.011199   1.327  0.18477    
lag(fasting_adj, 7)        0.014215   0.010685   1.330  0.18366    
lag(long_fast_adj)TRUE    -2.410448   0.509853  -4.728 2.56e-06 ***
lag(long_fast_adj, 2)TRUE  1.548376   0.527838   2.933  0.00342 ** 
lag(long_fast_adj, 3)TRUE -0.823346   0.529265  -1.556  0.12008    
lag(long_fast_adj, 4)TRUE  0.152474   0.531785   0.287  0.77438    
lag(long_fast_adj, 5)TRUE  0.553852   0.531203   1.043  0.29734    
lag(long_fast_adj, 6)TRUE -0.389027   0.527677  -0.737  0.46113    
lag(long_fast_adj, 7)TRUE -0.517277   0.518252  -0.998  0.31844    
lag(touring)TRUE        -0.448206   0.192564  -2.328  0.02011 *  
lag(touring, 2)TRUE      0.211959   0.256076   0.828  0.40801    
lag(touring, 3)TRUE     -0.182161   0.257267  -0.708  0.47905    
lag(touring, 4)TRUE      0.354994   0.257049   1.381  0.16755    
lag(touring, 5)TRUE     -0.098319   0.257247  -0.382  0.70239    
lag(touring, 6)TRUE      0.240977   0.258143   0.934  0.35076    
lag(touring, 7)TRUE     -0.181877   0.193124  -0.942  0.34652    
lag(ate_pizza)TRUE         0.130628   0.178043   0.734  0.46329    
lag(ate_pizza, 2)TRUE      0.165101   0.178906   0.923  0.35629    
lag(ate_pizza, 3)TRUE     -0.101685   0.179490  -0.567  0.57115    
lag(ate_pizza, 4)TRUE      0.195732   0.179730   1.089  0.27637    
lag(ate_pizza, 5)TRUE      0.432669   0.179346   2.412  0.01601 *  
lag(ate_pizza, 6)TRUE     -0.222697   0.179327  -1.242  0.21455    
lag(ate_pizza, 7)TRUE     -0.305294   0.178336  -1.712  0.08719 .  
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual customary error: 0.9337 on 1109 levels of freedom
  (7 observations deleted resulting from missingness)
A number of R-squared:  0.8069,	Adjusted R-squared:  0.7984 
F-statistic: 94.59 on 49 and 1109 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16